Strategic Autonomy in the Age of Artificial Intelligence

Vijay Kumar Saraswat - Member, NITI Aayog and Chancellor, Jawaharlal Nehru University

In the age of AI, control of borders, military strength, and adequacy of natural resources are not the only parameters for strategic autonomy. It is determined by control over data and  algorithms, computing infrastructure like data centers and the human skills to govern complex machine systems.

Introduction

Strategic autonomy traditionally is the ability of a nation to make independent decisions in areas such as security, economy, technology and diplomacy, free from undue external influence. However, in the 21st Century, this concept is being modified by the rapid rise of Artificial Intelligence (AI). AI has become a foundational layer of national power that has the ability to influence military effectiveness, economic strength, governance capacity  and societal resilience.

As a result, strategic autonomy in the age of AI extends beyond traditional priorities such as territorial defence and energy security. It now includes critical issues like data sovereignty, control over algorithms, access to computing infrastructures  and the development of skilled human capital.

Why AI Matters for National Power?

AI functions as a general-purpose technology that has strategic implications comparable to those of energy or the internet. Its application extends to intelligence analysis, defence systems, logistics, cyber operations, public administration, finance, and healthcare. Nations that control AI ecosystems gain significant asymmetric advantages, including predictive governance, faster decision-making cycles, enhanced situational awareness, and the ability to scale innovation efficiently.

Unlike conventional military or industrial assets, AI capabilities are cumulative and dependent on the implementation process. Early advantages in areas such as cloud infrastructure, data collection, semiconductor manufacturing, and talent development tend to reinforce themselves over time. This concentration of AI capabilities within a few countries and corporations impacts technological dependence, strategic vulnerability, and the gradual reduction of sovereign decision-making capability for others.

Impact of Foreign-owned Data and Algorithms

In the era of AI, data has emerged as a strategic resource. Control over national data, whether civilian, industrial, or defence-related, now has a direct bearing on a state’s ability to act autonomously. Dependence on foreign digital platforms, cloud providers, and proprietary algorithms can compromise sensitive information, shape policy choices  and create hidden channels of influence.

Dependence on algorithms is particularly problematic. When critical national functions, such as satellite imagery analysis, border control, battlefield decision-support tools, or financial systems, rely on algorithms owned and controlled by foreign entities, strategic autonomy can be easily compromised. Thus, achieving true autonomy today requires more than mere data ownership. It demands transparency, auditability and meaningful control over the AI systems that process and act upon that data.

Control of Decision-Making in Military AI

Use of AI in the military domain poses significant challenges. Technologies such as autonomous weapons systems, predictive logistics, decision-support tools, and AI-enabled command-and-control significantly impact the surveillance and action & reaction process in  military ecosystems. While this can enhance operational effectiveness, it also carries the risk of transferring critical judgement to machines that might have been trained on incomplete, biased, or context-insensitive data.

Reliance on externally developed AI models for targeting, threat assessment, or escalation management could adversely affect the process of independent military decision-making. Therefore, the indigenous development of military AI systems that are tested, validated, and governed in accordance with national doctrines, values, and threat perceptions is of utmost importance.

AI in Economic Growth

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Defence Minister Rajnath Singh at the 14th edition of Aero India 2023, in Bengaluru, on February 13, 2023. | PTI.

Increase in productivity due to the application of AI is reshaping global value chains and redefining patterns of economic competitiveness. Countries that lack domestic AI capabilities face the risk of deindustrialization, technological subordination, and labour displacement without compensation. Achieving autonomy depends on several critical foundations:

❖ Secure access to semiconductors and high-performance computing (HPC) systems

❖ A skilled workforce with expertise in developing, deploying  and regulating AI

❖ Indigenous AI research

❖ AI-enabled Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSME) sectors

Without these capabilities, reliance on foreign AI tools for functions such as design, quality control, and predictive maintenance can shift competitive advantage overseas, gradually eroding long-term economic control.

Democratic Processes, Effective Governance & Security

AI systems are playing an increasingly influential role in shaping public opinions, electoral outcomes and citizen behaviour through recommender systems and tailored media. As a result, strategic autonomy now also encompasses the capacity of a society to form opinions and make collective decisions independent of biased algorithms and information distortion.

Foreign-controlled AI platforms can shape narratives, amplify social divisions  and erode trust in institutions. A truly strong democratic governance in this era depends on stringent regulatory management, widespread digital literacy and sovereign oversight of AI systems with high societal impact.

Autonomy & Interdependence

Strategic autonomy does not mean technological isolation. Development of AI thrives on collaboration, open science and free movement of global talent. The challenge lies in striking the right balance between openness and control, and between international cooperation and national resilience.

Emerging economies should aim for selective autonomy; building sovereign capabilities while actively engaging in international partnerships. Multilateral frameworks for AI governance, norms for military AI, and diversified supply chains can strengthen a nation without distorting the global innovation ecosystem.

The Indian Perspective

The journey of India towards achieving Atmanirbharta in the era of AI reflects a more practical approach based on a blend of indigenous development, openness and institutional innovation.

One of the most distinctive contributions of India lies in its Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI) platforms such as Aadhaar, UPI, and DigiLocker and the India Stack, which have created interoperable, large-scale digital frameworks that generate trusted data flows within sovereign oversight. This architecture promotes AI innovation, enables the development of social applications such as health, welfare delivery, and fintech  as well as reduces dependence on foreign digital technologies.

In the defence and national security domain, India has launched indigenous AI programmes through R&D organisations, startups  and academic institutions. These programmes focus on areas such as surveillance, intelligence analysis, logistics optimisation  and decision-support systems. Policy initiatives like the National AI Strategy, along with recent efforts to promote domestic semiconductor manufacturing  demonstrate that AI autonomy requires control over both software and hardware components.

India should strategically draw selective lessons from global pioneers. From the United States, we can learn the importance of private-sector innovation, strong academia–industry interaction, and frontier research. From China, we can study  the value of long-term planning and commonality between civilian and strategic AI capabilities. From Europe, we can borrow an emphasis on ethical, transparent and accountable AI governance. At the same time, India should recognise the utility of selective autonomy, focusing on high-impact domains rather than attempting technological dominance.

The future of AI in India will depend on strengthening indigenous translational research, setting up compute and semiconductors infrastructure, integrating civil–military AI ecosystems, and investing in human capital. Eventually, the Indian objective should not be technological isolation but freedom of strategic choice to achieve AI-enhanced national capability without constraining sovereign decision-making.

Conclusion

In the age of AI, control of borders, military strength, and adequacy of natural resources are not the only parameters for strategic autonomy. It is determined by control over data and  algorithms, computing infrastructure like data centers and the human skills to govern complex machine systems.

In a world increasingly shaped by intelligent machines, nations that fail to secure these foundations risk becoming followers and always remain in chase-mode. True strategic autonomy in the AI era does not lie in resisting technological change, but in mastering it: aligning AI development with national ethos and long-term strategic objectives. The choices made today will determine whether AI becomes an instrument of empowerment or a source of dependence.

(This article is based on the Keynote Address delivered by the author at the strategic dialogue India’s AI Gambit: Navigating the Global Race, organised by NatStrat in January 2026 in New Delhi.)