Xi's Foreign Policy Options and Evolving Strategy

Pankaj Saran - Convenor, NatStrat

(Essay in National Security, Volume 6, Issue 1, January-March 2023, Published by the Vivekananda International Foundation)

China has always been a difficult society to understand because of its opaque, secretive and authoritarian political system, and insights into its functioning and what drives its behaviour are still far from definitive. Ensuring an accurate understanding of China is a task of the greatest consequence for India. This requires the marshalling of all our intellectual, intelligence and strategic resources and expanding our skill set. The stakes involved are such that we need an authentic Indian perspective on China. We cannot see China through the eyes of others. We have a rich body of expertise on China based on the collective experience of our serving and retired diplomats as well as the expanding study of China in our academic institutions and the growing body of Indian students in China. This represents a large and invaluable resource.

The question for us in India is what trajectory China will take in the coming years, and its impact on us. The last few years have been tumultuous and disruptive for the world. They contain lessons on how China confronted these challenges. Another key indicator is the proceedings of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC) held in October 2022. Put together, they offer pointers on what may lie ahead.

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